An Indian Perspective On Global Warming

An Indian Perspective On Global Warming

Without timely steps, climate change will impact on farming states like India the most

PURNIMA M GUPTA

Despite hectic pre-summit preparations that went in for the World Summit on Sustainable Development - also popularly known as “Rio+10” - being held at Johannesburg from August 26 to September 4, it did not get the kind of attention that was given to the previous Earth Summit held at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which alerted the global community to the hazards of deprivation in the natural environment. At Johannesburg, the global community will take stock of the prevailing situation. As a leading developing country, India is an important participant at Rio+10. Awareness about environmental degradation across different strata of society has increased significantly since the 1992 summit. However, the action taken to deal with the issues involved has not been commensurate with the magnitude of the problems. That environmental issues have still not moved to the centre-stage of political decision-making is evident, particularly in the case of Global Warming (GW). According to climate experts, there are six main greenhouse gases (GHGs) - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro fluorocarbons, perfluoro carbons and sulphur hexafluoride. The major culprit responsible for GW, however, is carbon dioxide, produced by burning fossils like coal, oil natural gas, etc. The threat from GW is now accepted to be real. The average global surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.40C to 5.80C over the period 1990-2100, with the frequency and severity of droughts increasing in Asia and Africa. GW is also believed to be responsible for the melting of glaciers. Receding glaciers are affecting the levels of water in rivers. Recent reports have also brought out that the Ganga is drying up because the Gangotri glacier, its main source, is receding at the rate of 10 to 30 metres a year. While the Ganga is drying up, there are signs now of rising water levels in the Bhakra Nangal Dam reservoir. The melting of glaciers in the upper Himalayas has been cited as a major contributor to this. This does not bode well for the physical environment in India. For instance, the extremely deficient monsoon showers in India this year are being attributed to GW. The Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, based in the US, had predicted acute soil moisture stress conditions in major parts of India due to less than normal rainfall and high temperatures. An earlier edition of The Financial Express (July 14, 2002) carried an exhaustive report on this. Moreover, studies at Cornell and Princeton Universities have brought out that climate change has begun to trigger the spread of disease in plants and animals, but which may eventually spill over to humans. Kyoto Protocol The Earth Summit of 1992 arrived at a Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The Conference of the Parties (CoP) held at Kyoto in Japan in 1997 arrived at a Protocol setting legally binding targets for industrialised countries to reduce their GHG emissions by about 7 percent from 1990 emission levels by 2008-2012. The success of the Protocol hinges upon ratification by at least 55 countries, particularly the biggest contributors of emissions. However, the US, which is the largest producer of GHG emissions, despite having signed the Protocol with a commitment to reduce emissions by 25 percent to 30 percent by 2010 as compared to 1990 levels, refuses to ratify the Protocol until the developing countries, particularly India and China, are also brought on board. The Way Ahead - Need for a Roadmap Current political agendas at national and international levels revolve more around Terrorism, relegating issues on Environment to the background. The Development versus Environment debate makes it even more difficult for environmental issues to come to the centrestage of politics. But the problem of GW is here to stay for several decades. The developed group of nations have still not arrived at an agreement on implementing significant cuts in GHG emissions. The principle of “differentiated responsibilities” included in the Climate Change Convention places a greater responsibility on the countries of the North in emissions reductions. Undoubtedly, there has been a lot more than mere rhetoric in dealing with climate change issues, across both the North and South. The international negotiating processes have evolved the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation Programmes, apart from Emission Trading, to bring about “clean energy”, i.e. low carbon energy. Nevertheless, the action taken so far has been significantly less than desired levels. The Indian government and non-governmental organisations have been actively participating in the global negotiations and their follow-up actions with a view to moving along the path of “clean energy” technologies. This is a long term process involving not only resources but also a commitment to implement clean technologies. The entire exercise of bringing about clean energy has to be viewed against the nexus between conventional energy lobbies, industry and political priorities. GW is closely connected with this. It is a “good” dose of incentives, financial assistance and political will that will take forward the process of implementing cuts. Climate change negotiations are hard economic negotiations. This is the predominant reason for the absence of any cuts in emissions by the North over a period of 10 years. This reflects the strength of the existing energy lobbies. India has to work hard to realise the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. After witnessing the impact of GW, the contributory anthropogenic factors (i.e., human-induced) have to be curtailed. If sufficient care is not taken, climate change will add additional stress to the already difficult living conditions for the vast majority of Indians, visible in varying areas such as deteriorating health, food production, water resources along with desertification, sea level rise and loss of biodiversity. It is industrialising countries like India who will be the major losers due to the adverse impacts of climate change because of their dependence on agriculture. India and other developing countries must adopt response strategies to combat climate change on a wider scale. An important response strategy is to prepare the communities and increase their resilience to face and cope with the adverse impacts of climate change. The global community must come forward to help in building capacity in this respect in India. India has to tackle climate change from a short-term and long-term perspective. In the short term, energy-efficient and low carbon fuels need to be encouraged through suitable incentives, eg., tax rebates. A long-term approach to deal with this problem should emphasise the use of renewable sources of energy like solar and wind energy. Greater application of solar energy in rural areas (farming and household energy) would go a long way in reducing dependence on conventional fossil fuels. These suggestions should be put forward at the Rio+10 summit for initiating global action on them. The author specialises on climate change-related issues