| An Indian Perspective On Global Warming | |
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| Without timely steps, climate change will impact on farming states like India the most | |
| PURNIMA M GUPTA | |
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| Despite hectic pre-summit preparations that went in for the World Summit on Sustainable Development - also popularly known as “Rio+10” - being held at Johannesburg from August 26 to September 4, it did not get the kind of attention that was given to the previous Earth Summit held at Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which alerted the global community to the hazards of deprivation in the natural environment. At Johannesburg, the global community will take stock of the prevailing situation. As a leading developing country, India is an important participant at Rio+10. Awareness about environmental degradation across different strata of society has increased significantly since the 1992 summit. However, the action taken to deal with the issues involved has not been commensurate with the magnitude of the problems. That environmental issues have still not moved to the centre-stage of political decision-making is evident, particularly in the case of Global Warming (GW). According to climate experts, there are six main greenhouse gases (GHGs) - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro fluorocarbons, perfluoro carbons and sulphur hexafluoride. The major culprit responsible for GW, however, is carbon dioxide, produced by burning fossils like coal, oil natural gas, etc.
For instance, the extremely deficient monsoon showers in India this year are being attributed to GW. The Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, based in the US, had predicted acute soil moisture stress conditions in major parts of India due to less than normal rainfall and high temperatures. An earlier edition of The Financial Express (July 14, 2002) carried an exhaustive report on this. Moreover, studies at Cornell and Princeton Universities have brought out that climate change has begun to trigger the spread of disease in plants and animals, but which may eventually spill over to humans. Kyoto Protocol The Way Ahead - Need for a Roadmap Undoubtedly, there has been a lot more than mere rhetoric in dealing with climate change issues, across both the North and South. The international negotiating processes have evolved the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation Programmes, apart from Emission Trading, to bring about “clean energy”, i.e. low carbon energy. Nevertheless, the action taken so far has been significantly less than desired levels. The Indian government and non-governmental organisations have been actively participating in the global negotiations and their follow-up actions with a view to moving along the path of “clean energy” technologies. This is a long term process involving not only resources but also a commitment to implement clean technologies. The entire exercise of bringing about clean energy has to be viewed against the nexus between conventional energy lobbies, industry and political priorities. GW is closely connected with this. It is a “good” dose of incentives, financial assistance and political will that will take forward the process of implementing cuts. Climate change negotiations are hard economic negotiations. This is the predominant reason for the absence of any cuts in emissions by the North over a period of 10 years. This reflects the strength of the existing energy lobbies. India has to work hard to realise the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. After witnessing the impact of GW, the contributory anthropogenic factors (i.e., human-induced) have to be curtailed. If sufficient care is not taken, climate change will add additional stress to the already difficult living conditions for the vast majority of Indians, visible in varying areas such as deteriorating health, food production, water resources along with desertification, sea level rise and loss of biodiversity. It is industrialising countries like India who will be the major losers due to the adverse impacts of climate change because of their dependence on agriculture. India and other developing countries must adopt response strategies to combat climate change on a wider scale. An important response strategy is to prepare the communities and increase their resilience to face and cope with the adverse impacts of climate change. The global community must come forward to help in building capacity in this respect in India. India has to tackle climate change from a short-term and long-term perspective. In the short term, energy-efficient and low carbon fuels need to be encouraged through suitable incentives, eg., tax rebates. A long-term approach to deal with this problem should emphasise the use of renewable sources of energy like solar and wind energy. Greater application of solar energy in rural areas (farming and household energy) would go a long way in reducing dependence on conventional fossil fuels. These suggestions should be put forward at the Rio+10 summit for initiating global action on them. The author specialises on climate change-related issues |
Sunday, April 8, 2007
An Indian Perspective On Global Warming
Global warming or global cooling?
Things were different in 1940-70, when there was global cooling. Every cold winter then was hailed as proof of a coming new Ice Age. But the moment cooling was replaced by warming, a new disaster in the opposite direction was proclaimed.
A recent Washington Post article gave this scientist's quote from 1972. "We simply cannot afford to gamble. We cannot risk inaction. The scientists who disagree are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored." The warning was not about global warming (which was not happening): it was about global cooling!
In the media, disaster is news, and its absence is not. This principle has been exploited so skillfully by ecological scare-mongers that it is now regarded as politically incorrect, even unscientific, to denounce global warming hysteria as unproven speculation.
Meteorologists are a standing joke for getting predictions wrong even a few days ahead. The same jokers are being taken seriously when they use computer models to predict the weather 100 years hence.
The models have not been tested for reliability over 100 years, or even 20 years. Different models yield variations in warming of 400%, which means they are statistically meaningless.
Wassily Leontief, Nobel prize winner for modeling, said this about the limits of models. "We move from more or less plausible but really arbitrary assumptions, to elegantly demonstrated but irrelevant conclusions." Exactly. Assume continued warming as in the last three decades, and you get a warming disaster. Assume more episodes of global cooling, and you get a cooling disaster.
In his latest best seller State of Fear, Michael Crichton does a devastating expose of the way ecological groups have tweaked data and facts to create mass hysteria. He points out that we know astonishingly little about the environment. All sides make exaggerated claims.
We know that atmospheric carbon is increasing. We are also in the midst of a natural warming trend that started in 1850 at the end of what is called the Little Ice Age. It is scientifically impossible to prove whether the subsequent warming is natural or man-made.
Greens say, rightly, that the best scientific assessment today is that global warming is occurring. Yet never in history have scientists accurately predicted what will happen 100 years later. A century ago no scientists predicted the internet, microwave ovens, TV, nuclear explosions or antibiotics. It is impossible, even stupid, to predict the distant future.
That scientific truth is rarely mentioned. Why? Because the global warming movement has now become a multi-billion dollar enterprise with thousands of jobs and millions in funding for NGOs and think-tanks, top jobs and prizes for scientists, and huge media coverage for predictions of disaster.
The vested interests in the global warming theory are now as strong, rich and politically influential as the biggest multinationals. It is no co-incidence, says Crichton, that so many scientists sceptical of global warming are retired professors: they have no need to chase research grants and chairs.
I have long been an agnostic on global warming: the evidence is ambiguous. But I almost became a convert when Greenpeace publicised photos showing the disastrously rapid retreat of the Upsala Glacier in Argentina. How disastrous, I thought, if this was the coming fate of all glaciers.
Then last Christmas, I went on vacation to Lake Argentina. The Upsala glacier and six other glaciers descend from the South Andean icefield into the lake. I was astounded to discover that while the Upsala glacier had retreated rapidly, the other glaciers showed little movement, and one had advanced across the lake into the Magellan peninsula. If in the same area some glaciers advance and others retreat, the cause is clearly not global warming but local micro-conditions.
Yet the Greenpeace photos gave the impression that glaciers in general were in rapid retreat. It was a con job, a dishonest effort to mislead. From the same icefield, another major glacier spilling into Chile has grown 60% in volume.
Greenpeace and other ecological groups have well-intentioned people with high ideals. But as crusaders they want to win by any means, honest or not. I do not like being taken for a ride, by idealists or anyone else.
We need impartial research, funded neither by MNCs, governmental groups or NGOs with private agendas. And the media needs to stop highlighting disaster scares and ignoring exposes of the scares.
India's global warming fears
In India, weather-related natural disasters already cause annual chaos.
Two months ago, whole regions of West Bengal disappeared under water - rescue workers had to use boats to give emergency help to more than 16 million affected people.
These were the worst floods for more than 20 years.
Several factors were blamed - from silted riverbeds to mismanagement of resources. But could global warming also have played a part? 
Journalist Nirmal Ghosh firmly believes global warming is going to cause far more chaos across India in the future.
"Global warming is going to make other small local environmental issues... seem like peanuts, because it is the big one which is going to come and completely change the face of the Earth.
"We're talking about mass migrations because of changing weather. That will have implications on politics. There are states in India which are fighting court cases over water," Mr Ghosh says.
Shrinking glaciers
As well as floods, India also suffers acute water shortages - earlier this year the western state of Rajasthan was struck by drought.
Nirmal Ghosh says the steady shrinking of Himalayan glaciers means the entire water system is being disrupted - global warming, he says, will cause even greater extremes.
"Statistically, it is proven that the Himalayan glaciers are actually shrinking, and within 50 to 60 years they will virtually run out of producing the water levels that we are seeing now. 
"This will cut down drastically the water available downstream, and in agricultural economies like the plains of UP (Uttar Pradesh) and Bihar, which are poor places to begin with. This is probably going to, over a short period of time, cause tremendous social upheaval," he says.
Not everyone agrees. Some scientists say the glaciers have been shrinking for decades and other factors are to blame.
Certainly, India has a long history of extreme weather patterns - and extremes of temperature across the continent. So is it too simplistic to blame global warming just because recent floods and droughts have been acute?
West blamed
Dr RR Kelkar, the director general of the Indian meteorological department, says it is too early for accurate data to be available yet.
"India is a tropical country, we must remember that. We are used to hot environments, we are used to heavy rains, we are used to cyclones, and really there is no clear statistically significant trend that things are going to change drastically.
"There is a need now for scientists to probe into them and find out how they will be affecting us - but one of the problems is that these models are sometimes converted into scary stories which is something we shouldn't fall for," Dr Kelkar says. 
Scary stories or not, there are also concerns that knowledge being gathered about the impact of global warming is controlled by the West.
Scientists in the subcontinent do not always have the resources available to challenge data being compiled by developed countries.
Professor SK Sinha is a specialist at the water technology centre at the Pusa Institute. He accuses the West, and in particular the United States, of manipulating the debate.
"They make the rules. In fact, they even lure people from the developing countries to substantiate or to confirm that data, not necessarily always with very valid equipments and arguments," he says.
Cyclones, floods and droughts aren't in themselves new - but how much is global warming likely to worsen them, and how far will countries like India be able to influence the global debate?
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Energy roadmap backs renewables
Half of the world's energy needs in 2050 could be met by renewables and improved efficiency, a study has said.
It said alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar, could provide nearly 70% of the world's electricity and 65% of global heat demand.
Following a "business as usual" scenario would see demand for energy double by 2050, the authors warned.
The study, by the German Aerospace Center, was commissioned by Greenpeace and Europe's Renewable Energy Council.
The report, Energy Revolution: a sustainable world energy outlook, provided a "roadmap" for meeting future energy needs without fuelling climate change, said Sven Teske from Greenpeace International.
"We have shown that the world can have safe, robust renewable energy, that we can achieve the efficiencies needed and we can do all of this while enjoying global economic growth," he said.
He added that the strategy outlined in the report showed that it was economically feasible to cut global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by almost 50% over the next 43 years.
'Solar generation'
The report calls for ageing fossil fuel and nuclear power plants to be replaced by renewable generation when they reach the end of their operational lives.
"Right now, we have five main sources of energy - oil, coal, gas, nuclear and hydro. In our scenario, we have solar, wind, geo-thermal, bio-energy and hydro," Mr Teske told BBC News.
He added that they had developed 10 regional scenarios to highlight which renewable sources would be most effective in particular parts of the world.
"Of course, for the Middle East we have a lot of solar power, while northern Europe and North America will have a lot more wind energy in the mix.
"We also dissect it by sector," he added. "Renewables will dominate the electricity sector, and the heating and cooling sectors.
"By 2050, in our scenario, the majority of fossil fuels will be used in the transport sector."
China is pushing ahead with a rapid building programme for fossil fuel power plants to sustain its economic growth. A statistic often quoted is that it is effectively bringing a 1GW coal power station online each week.
As these plants are expected to be operating for at least 40 years, there is concern that this is "locking" greenhouse gas emissions into the world's energy supply for decades to come.
Mr Teske said this had been factored into their figures: "If you look at our scenario for China, you will see that the demand for coal will increase over the next 10 years because we have assumed that all the power plants being constructed will be used."
He added that the increase in demand for energy in emerging economies and developing nations would be balanced by greater efficiencies being made in developed nations.
But he said that it would not mean rich nations would have to "freeze in the dark"; strict energy standards would ensure only the most efficient electrical goods, heating systems and vehicles would go on sale.
Political will
The best way to curb greenhouse gas emissions without harming economic growth has made its way to the top of the political agenda.
The European Commission recently published its strategic review, outlining a range of measures that it felt would deliver a reduction in emissions while not undermining energy security.
These included tighter efficiency standards for goods and housing in the EU; strengthening the European Emissions Trading Scheme; and plans to revamp the way the region's energy market.
However, plans to introduce legislation to limit CO2 emissions from cars were shelved after disagreements within the commission and further afield.
The apparent lack of political consensus on the best way to proceed was a concern, especially as a number of nations were currently reviewing the shape of future energy supplies, said Arthouros Zervos, president of the European Renewable Energy Council.
"What we want to believe is that there is a change in the minds of politicians, especially after what we have seen happen to the climate," Professor Zervos told BBC News.
"We hope this report will have an effect on the political decision making process."
Source: Copyright 2007, BBC
Date: January 25, 2007
Original URL
Real Climate Change Based Energy Policy: Renewables, Efficiency AND Conservation
Real Climate Change Based Energy Policy: Renewables, Efficiency AND Conservation
A new study by the German Aerospace Center, commissioned by Greenpeace and Europe's Renewable Energy Council, contends that half of the energy needs in 2050 could be met by renewable energy and energy efficiency gains. It is estimated that alternative energy sources including wind and solar could provide nearly 70% of the world's electricity. They state there would be no need for nuclear nor coal energy, though biofuels would be intensified under this scenario. The report entitled Energy [R]evolution: a sustainable world energy outlook seeks to provide a"roadmap" for meeting future energy needs without fuelling climate change. My primary concern (other than severe doubts about the environmental gains from industrial biofuels expressed on many occasions including recently) with the approach taken is the failure to factor in conservation, or willfully using less energy. No one seems willing to say truthfully that addressing climate change through limiting energy use to clean, green sources is going to mean purposefully sacrificing on some luxuries. Who will tell the developed world that their lifestyle is not sustainable? Indications are that people ARE willing to sacrifice for the environment. This is different than efficiency, a factor of technology and mechanics, it is an ethic of shared voluntary simplicity as a societal duty. I do agree with the report's conclusion that an apparent lack of political consensus on the best way to proceed, along with I would add a dearth of leaders with the requesite knowledge and vision, are the biggest hindrances to energy policy that keeps the lights on without frying the Planet.
Exxon Mobil softens its climate-change stance
Exxon Mobil softens its climate-change stance
In one of the strongest signs yet that the U.S. industry anticipates government curbs on global-warming emissions, Exxon Mobil Corp., long a leading opponent of such rules, is starting to talk about how it would like them to be structured.
Exxon, the world's largest publicly traded oil company by market value, long has been a lightning rod in the global-warming debate. Its top executives openly have questioned the scientific validity of claims that fossil-fuel emissions are warming the planet, and it has funded outside groups that have challenged such claims in language sometimes stronger than the company itself has used.
Those actions have prompted criticism of the company by environmentalists and by Democrats, who recently gained control of the Congress.
Now, Exxon has cut off funding to a handful of those outside groups. It says climate-science models that link greenhouse-gas concentrations to global warming are getting more reliable. And it is meeting in Washington with officials of other large corporations to discuss what form the companies would prefer possible U.S. carbon regulations to take.
The changes in Exxon's words and actions are nuanced. The oil giant continues to note uncertainties in climate science. It continues to oppose the Kyoto Protocol, the international global-warming treaty that limits emissions from industrialized countries that have ratified it. It also stresses that any future carbon policy should include developing countries, where emissions are rising fastest.
Still, the company's subtle softening is significant and reflects a gathering trend among much of U.S. industry, from utilities to automakers. While many continue to oppose caps, these companies expect the country will impose mandatory global-warming-emission constraints at some point, so they are lining up to try to shape any mandate so they escape with minimum economic pain.
Think-tank funding
Exxon has stopped funding the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based think tank that last year ran television ads saying carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is helpful.
After funding them previously, Exxon decided in late 2005 not to fund for 2006 CEI and "five or six" other groups active in the global-warming debate, Kenneth Cohen, Exxon's vice president for public affairs, confirmed recently in an interview at Exxon's headquarters in Irving, Texas. He declined to identify the groups beyond CEI; their names are expected to become public in the spring, when Exxon releases its annual list of donations to nonprofit groups.
Myron Ebell, director of CEI's energy and global-warming program, declined to comment about why Exxon didn't fund CEI last year. But he added: "Like any company, they are concerned about both policies and image.
"We're not at the mercy of our funders for what we believe. But we are dependent on them for funding to help promote our programs," he said. "Obviously, we would like to find a lot more funding on energy and global warming than we've had."
Meetings of the mindss
More significant are the meetings between executives from Exxon and other companies to discuss the potential structure of U.S. carbon regulations. Several parallel tracks of discussions are under way, some sponsored by Washington think tanks, including the Brookings Institution and Resources for the Future.
The meetings underscore the view within much of U.S. industry that the science and the politics of global warming are changing. "The issue has evolved," Cohen said.
Exxon says important questions remain about the degree to which fossil-fuel emissions are contributing to global warming. But "the modeling has gotten better" analyzing the probabilities of how rising greenhouse-gas emissions will affect global temperatures, Cohen said.
Exxon continues to stress the modeling is imperfect; it is "helpful to an analysis, but it's not a predictor," Cohen said. But he added, "We know enough now — or, society knows enough now — that the risk is serious and action should be taken."
What kind of action?
The question is what kind of action. The economic reality is that some companies will win from a carbon constraint and some companies will lose, depending on how regulations are written.
One question is whether a carbon tax or cap should be imposed upstream — on producers of fossil fuels — or downstream, on the industries, and perhaps even the individual consumers, who use those fuels. Another question is whether such constraints should target just a few industries or should be applied across the economy.
Such questions already are sparking fierce lobbying fights among industries in Europe. There, countries have slapped carbon caps on several heavily emitting industries. Now the countries are toughening those constraints.
A similar zero-sum fight appears increasingly likely in the U.S. California adopted a broad global-warming cap last year, and now it has to decide which companies, and perhaps which consumers, to stick with the responsibility for meeting the targets. Other states say they plan to follow California's lead.
In Washington, meanwhile, Democratic congressional leaders say they will push for some sort of federal carbon constraint.
"By all indications, we'll certainly see much more legislative activity at the state and federal level going forward," Cohen said. Among the broad options being debated, he said, "some look more favorable to us than others."
'Broadest possible base'
Exxon wants any regulation to be applied across "the broadest possible base" of the economy, said Jaime Spellings, Exxon's general manager for corporate planning. Exxon says avoiding a ton of carbon-dioxide emissions is, with certain exceptions, less expensive in the power industry than in the transportation sector.
Though solar energy remains expensive, reducing a ton of emissions by generating electricity from essentially carbon-free sources such as nuclear or wind energy is cheaper than reducing a ton of emissions through low-carbon transportation fuels such as ethanol.
Exxon, like the U.S. government, also argues that any regulation should take into account rising emissions from developing countries, too. Both Exxon and the federal government oppose the Kyoto Protocol.
The fact that Exxon officials are beginning to lay out even these generalities is significant, said Philip Sharp, president of Resources for the Future.
"They are taking this debate very seriously," said Sharp, a former Democratic congressman long active in energy-policy debates. "My personal opinion of them has changed by watching them operate."
Source: Copyright 2007, Wall Street Journal
Original URL
India should work against global warming
'India should work against global warming' "It is very important India plays a strategic role in the battle against global warming and in that it should get necessary help from every one," Miliband told PTI on the eve of his four-day visit to India commencing in Delhi tomorrow. "Global warming is a challenge to all countries and I am interested in learning how India is coping up with it. "25 per cent of the Indian population live in coastal areas and 27 per cent of the Indian economy is agro-based and climate change and rising sea levels are desperately dangerous for the Indian people and the Indian economy," he said. Most scientists concur that temperatures would rise by two to six degrees Celsius this century, mainly because of carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels for power and transport, putting millions of lives at risk from flood and famine. "The British government wants to have a real partnership of equals with the Indian government in coming to terms with climate change and global warming. We feel there is a moral and economic responsibility for the industrialized countries to show that they are willing to take the lead in cutting carbon emissions. "But there is also a requirement that all countries are part of a global emissions reduction deal," Miliband said. | ||
| Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=152321 |